Use Expected Fantasy Points to Sell High Trade Targets
Buy low sell high fantasy football Tyler Lockett scored a huge scoring bonus in Week 7, setting the season record for fantasy points with 53 and expected fantasy points of 37.9 respectively. Below, you can find out what to do with Tyler Lockett and other fantasy points users using my Expected Fantasy Points Model.
Expected Fantasy Points
The model was built using a metric called Expected fantasy points (xFP). The xFP of a player is determined by the value of each carry or target. Historical data attributes are used to correlate with actual fantasy points. This is how it works in detail.
The expected fantasy points are essentially what an average player would do with all the opportunities available to them. To arrive at the difference, we can subtract the fantasy points earned by the player. This is a crucial metric.
How to interpret expected buy low sell high fantasy football
Two sources are responsible for the difference between fantasy points expected and actually achieved:
It would be reasonable to expect the NFL’s most talented players to have more fantasy points than they expected. This is obvious because xFP is based upon the averages of all players. A coach or scheme may lead to an over-expected difference in points actually. An average carry in Kyle Shanahan’s offense will produce more points than one in Adam Gase’s. A good offensive line will have a better carry than one with poor stats.
Expected fantasy points are used to identify players experiencing bad luck or very good luck. Luck will not change over time, unlike the other differences. We are looking to sell players with bad luck and buy players who have good luck.
It can be difficult to distinguish between sustainable differences and luck-related differences. It is not an exact science. Most players will score within a few point per game of their fantasy points for the season. The most likely players to benefit or suffer from luck are those with the greatest differences.
The main purpose of the buy low sell high fantasy football model during the season is to help you win trades. We want to sell players who are lucky and buy those who are not.
Johnson’s numbers look good on the surface. Johnson is averaging 14.1 xFP/game, which is good for WR20. He shoots an average of 21.5 xFP per week, which excludes Weeks 3 through 5, when Johnson sustained two first-quarter injuries. Although it’s only three games, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Keenan All are better than him in adjusting for their injuries in-game, it’s still quite impressive.